Thursday, February 21, 2019

Population and economic growth Essay

It seems obvious that to a greater extent than speedily growing creations let fewer natural resources per person, less physical metropolis per work uper, more cipherents, and greater involve for new accessible infrastructure. Perceptibly, they essential be accounted as scotch all(a)y worse off. These intuitions shaped the earlier studies of creation and scotch runation much(prenominal) as Coale and Ho all overmodel (1958). Later studies develop more neoclassical versions of these ideas, featuring that more rapid innovation maturement light-emitting diode to per capita income.Noble prize economist Kuznets (1956), as well as Boserup (1956, 1981) and Simon (1981) suggested more possible corroborative effects of nation developing, including economies of scale, acceleration of technological progress, plicapable foodstuff response to emerging shortages , induces institutional changes , cheaper parley and transportation, and easier collective social investments. Kuznets examined per capita income fruit and macrocosm gain targets across nations and found positive correlation, which seemed inconsistent with Koale Hoover view.Their study was replicate by m all others. In another advance, piece bully was explicitly incorpo telld in growth model, and cross national empirical analysis in the convergence framework indicated larger positive effects of tribe growth (Mankiw, Romer and W2EIL 1994). As Dawson and lunch (1998, p.149) put it that the relationship amongst universe of discourse growth and the frugal instruction has long been thought to be fundamental to our understanding of less real countries . Indeed most text book on scotch phylogeny includes a section of commonwealth and development.However there is no consensus whether race growth is beneficial or detrimental in the sparing growth in the developing countries. As Thirwall (1994, p.143) commented the relationship between universe of discourse growth and economi c development is a complex unrivaled and the historical site is am toughuous special(a)ly concerning what is the cause what is the effect. It is traditionally seen that the hoi polloi of Bhutan atomic number 18, by chastity of the circumstances of their habitat and precipice terrain, subjected to serious handicaps and constrained to scratch the earth for alternatively squalid and miserable living.The general impression in the minds of Bhutanese and internationalers as well who visit the nation is one of hail abandonment and salutary disuse of the people. For most of the people of agrestic argona, electricity, portable body of piss grant, clinic, health centers and hospital which are by and large concentrated in the alleged urban areas, are well(p) illusive luxurious. High proportion of the universe legato lives in the state of nature, by passed by the modernizing influences and sop ups, which revolutionize traditional societies to innovative modern societies. Th e state of the life of the population kills its en soiasm, dampens their morale and mitigates their sense of pauperism and initiative.The s simple machinecityof these pre-requisites in the body politic is faced for the wanting of human jacket that linearly depends upon the surface of its cosmos. For this reason, it seems that low population growth rate of the estate has, to large extent, been blamed for its state of affairs. Acrimonious debate regarding the economies and diseconomies of population has spurted between two schools of thought. One argument, maped by Clark and Ohlin, is in party favor of unrepressed population growth found on the contention that it stimulates business and general economic growth cycles and therefore essential for development.The other argument of Malthus is in favour of repressed population growth on the ground that unrestrained set up in population provide mean less resources for individual members star(p) to considerable reduction in the eu phoric life and well world of the people in that society, thus constituting an impediment to the socio-economic development of the society. The practical mo of these divergent views is that positively or negatively, population question is intricately tie in to development which by all considerations is man centered.Alluding to the positive and negative encroachment of rapid population growth, Ude asserted that though there coffin nail be no development without human creations, each development that does not forget to overall plus in the welfare of the people is deficient. However, despite the virtue of Malthus schools arguments in favour of repressed population growth, the rapid population growth has unequivocally been a panacea in dealing with the problem of human chief city whereby underdevelopment and poverty was in prevalent in Bhutan.Therefore Bhutanese in general should be sensitized to the realities of their humble miserable situation. Steps should be taken to mob ilize the energies and efforts of the people to adjoin the growth rate of the population to the level that considered sufficient enough to get down human cap drastically needed for revolutionizing the economy through first imminent developmental work with their help. In this publisher, efforts are do to reason the issue of population growth in Bhutan in its various ramifications.In the first place, the author takes the critical look at the deplorable economic conditions of the people. This is followed by an incisive examination of the implications of the phenomenon of population growth on the beleaguered economy. In ilk manner, the importance of the population growth, particularly in relation to the multiplication of human resources and consequent development in the pastoral are highlighted. Next, near suggestions and recommendations are made to ameliorate the economic conditions of the people, arising as a lead of lack slow population growth rate in the country.METHODLOG YThis is paper is travelling bagd upon literature and theoretical evidences rendered by various school of economic thought. We have used Kuznets and W.W. Rostow model to explain the implication of population and economic development in Bhutan. In addition to this we used time serial publication data for economic growth and population from the different issues of National Accounts Statistics reports of Bhutan, and population and census of Bhutan 2005. The State of Economy in BhutanThe plight to Communities in Bhutan is the snap of current discussions by m any(prenominal) economists and a matter of concern for all levels of government in the Country. The picture of the country is described as being pathetic and the main features of the pre-requisites of economic development are found to be under- true because of under utilization of its natural resources. In most areas in Bhutan, the radical infrastructural facilities which have been considered by W.WRostow as prerequisites for dev elopment and tolerable human existence are generally lacking3. One of the pre-requisites of the well being of the community of any country is its roadstead. there are no functional roads for vehicles in agrarian areas and in some part of the country, roads braid work has not been yet lay outed, thus leaving the people in those areas in dreary isolation from their own people and the rest of the World.The existing roads are in addition in deplorable condition. They are generally characterized by innumerable pot holes, deep enough to snap a cars shockers or give the rim a terminal damage. The pathetic story of our rural roads calls for great concern when it is realized that over 70 percent of Bhutanese, as noted above, live in the rural areas and that it is from the latter that most of the food products of the country are derived. Without near roads, it becomes a big problem to send food products from these areas to the urban dwellers mainly depend on the rural folks for their fo od supply.Hence, each harvest season, thousands of rural farmers watchhelplessly as the crops which they dejectionnot evacuate to the urban commercializes go waste, thus marginalizing their income from farm proceeds over the years. Being an agricultural predominated economy if it bottom of the inningnot able to produce exportable product, it must produce as much as food scintilla as is required by the countrymen.The irony of the Bhutanese economy is that all economists see it as rugged mountainous country which has less scope to produce that what is required by its people. They have made such(prenominal) impression Worldwide about this economy that nothing posterior sufficiently be produced here except remaining dependent on others for each and every thing. Moreover, the Bhutanese economy is suffering of the shortage of pre-requisites necessary for great spurt from backward economy to industrial economy. According to W.W.ROSTW, every developing country has to pass through a certain stages of development that he manifested as per-requisites of economic development.According to Gerschenkron, the existence of certain necessary conditions (pre-requisites) is not required for industrial enterprise as is put away by Rostow. He familyd this view on two empirical observations. First, the preconditions for industrial enterprise that existed in Eng region during its industrial revolution was virtually absent in the backward countries of Europe or existed on a very small scale. Secondly, big spurt of industrialization occurred even in those countries where they were not present at all.Without having adequate preconditions, these countries akin Italy, France, Ger some(prenominal), and USSR (before 1985) had brought big spurt in their economy. Though they had not sufficient pre-conditions for great spurt, they had an adequate human capital because of high population growth to exploit natural resources and utilize them for generating precondition corresponding to industrialization full stop of these countries.Since Bhutanese economy is in any case passing through the same state of affairs by which the present certain nations were passing historically, it can also bring big spurt in its economy provided it should have its own sufficient human capital. This may be possible if it look back its National population policy for stepping up its growth to meet the request of labour deposit in the country. race and Economic Growth many another(prenominal) dynamic and active debates have been held regarding the impact of the adjoin population on the economic development of the country since theexistence of the Malthusian guess. No doubt, an increase in the population in most of the countries has adversely affected the per capita payoff of the nation. Our empirical study related to the impact of population growth rate on economic growth has explored statistically very real and affirmatory findings in case of Bhutanese economy. The basic infrastructural facilities which are required, at the key development stage of the country, unfortunately found almost missing.This country needs stringent measures towards rendering more academic and vocational institution so that more academicians, engineers, heals can be trained to enhance the family of the human capital. distinctiveness in the works increase the quality and productivity of the labour and this in all likelihood be procured, if the country go forth have a well- versed pool of human capital.The massive group of the human capital will automatically enhance the economic growth of Bhutan. Development of the countries such as India and chinaware are wide-cutly impinging upon the human capital. Economic growth rate of these countries, since their independence, has grown very rapidly because of large group of human capital .Though these countries have suffered because of the high growth rate of population they are progressing at high rate only because of innov ations and technology, which in deal, depend upon the human capital which is linearly related to their population.India is enjoying the post of nourishing almost 16% of the total population of the World and economically stands fourth in the world based on purchasing power parity as per the World aver report of 2008. Population is not the sole factor for slowdown in the economic growth of the country, however factors like political instability, corruption, inefficient managerial system, misallocation of resources, etc. are more responsible for it.As the Chinese power saw reflects that Roads and railways lines are considered as the fate lines of the nation, the government of Bhutan must pay attention towards the dissemination of the network of roads. Government needs to start some plans and projects to build railway track and Air routes through which touring car can be attracted within the country that will enhance the foreign Cash Reserves. According to National statistics Bur eau of Bhutan (2010), 69%of the total population of Bhutan is living in rural areas (205Gewogs -Bhutan at glance -2008) of the country.Most of thevillages are deprived of the basic amenities like road safe water supply, education, regulated markets where the surplus product of the peasant could be marketed. There are only 29 hospitals with 145 doctors that are taking care of 6, 71083 people (Population and Census of Bhutan, 2005). It performer that there are approximately one doctor per 5000 people that seem to be a very poorest ratio later on Ethiopia and many others under developed countries of the world.There is a need for increasing the health related facilities in the country. Geographical conditions of the country become an handicap in the way of the masses to portion the medical facilities in the hospital. trial-and-error findings show very dismal progress in the area of health. These entire problem faced by the people are ascribed to lack of human capital which could b e solved by increasing the population of the country. The political economy of scale phenomenon of population1. Population and market structureDespite of the Malthus theory of diminishing return when it comes to scarce resource like food and water , some of optimistic population growth economist , like Kuznets (1956), Boserup (1981), believed that population growth can really help the nation economy to turn from ineffective economy into economies of scale state. According to Kendrick (1977), economies of scale are an classical factor to increase the productivity of labour of a country.A country with rapid population growth can suffer many maladies like capital dilution, shortage of necessity resources and the causality could lead the whole population to poverty, famine and starvation. However, there are three arguments supported for the idea that population growth can boost the country economy by economic science of scale phenomenon.Firstly, a nation, which has a rapid population growth rate, means that its population size will develop with a quicker rate. The bigger the population size is, the larger the market size becomes. In order to meet the product demand of the large size market, bigger and more effective as well as longer performance period manufacturing plants are required to develop (simon, 1994). Countries in the world with larger population size like India and China are growing faster than any other country of the world because of their heavy market network. Market base not only generate entrepreneurship among nationals but also causes induced foreign investment in the country.All developing countries like Bhutan need significant funds to expedite economic development programme for making grooming of amenities required for higher living standard of the people of the country.The present state of economic affair of Bhutanese economy necessitates the expansion of market base to have an induced foreign investment and the generation of entrepreneurs hip among nationals to establish spectrum of industries in country to bring about industrial revolution. All the developed countries of the present world were backward historically (Gerschenkron 1947). Germany, Italy, USA, and England have achieved a status of advance industrialized countries, which were also backward in past, due to their strong army of human capital.Therefore, we can conclude that if Bhutan intends to be a developed country, it will have to acquire more human capital but that would be possible only if it increases its population. Population and specialized labour forceLarge size of the population not only expands a market structure but also possess an impressive number of labours. Because of the avail ability of the labour force it is possible for firms to divide their labor into particular theatrical role of labor to do specific tasks. An excellent example of specialisation is car assembly line in which each division just takes responsibility of installing only one part of the car such as engine or car wheels. According to Adam Smith, division of labor has caused a greater increase in production than any other factor. This diversification is greatest for nations with more industry and purifyment, and is responsible for cosmopolitan opulence in those countries.Moreover, through specialization, working skill of labor force is likely to improve more pronto with learning-by-doing. Since a large size of population demands a tremendous number of products, these workers have more chances to improve their working skill. As a result, the average time spending for producing one unit of output have tendency to decrease more quickly than in smaller market-size. Correlating with saving producing time, the embody per one product is also deducted and firm is more efficient through specialization. Finally, the rapid population growth rate could cause a positive effect on communication and transportation.Transportation plays an important role in econo mic development. A good transportation system can help reducetransportation cost and travel time. Along with high population growth rate, the increase in population density is inevitable. A dense population is likely to mechanical press the government to develop more in transportation system such as stun, highways and road. Take China as an example, according to United Nations Population Division, in 1985, its population density was 110 people/km2 and the total come in of railroad was 52,000 km while in 2010, the total length of railroad is 91,000 km (increase 75%) and its population density is 141 people per square kilometer (increases 28%).Transportation improvement is surely a general snub for every economic development, but it is not deniable to state that the population density has a strong impact on number of construction of transportation. As Julian L. Simon stated in The Ultimate Resource, population growth clearly leads to an improved transportation system, which in tu rn stimulates economic development. Population and self reliant in food grainThe transcending trend in total cultivable land is a serious concern for the government of Bhutan .These appalling trend cannot be owed to an increase in population but to an occupation changes in the economy which acquire due the occurring structural changes via economic development as is put forth by Schumper .Since the economy has started growing, the corresponding sector of agriculture sector like service sector and industrial sector have also started developing whereby the agriculturist are induced to migrate from their agricultural occupation to service and industrial sector. When the land owner shifted from agriculture to service and industrial sectors, their land turned barren.Migration of the masses from their earlier main occupation to services and industrial sector must be considered as main cause of fall in arable land but not the pressure of population. we can emphatically favour the economi es of population that if the size of the population had high, the size of arable land would not have decreased rather it would have increased.We corroborate our views with the help of classical economist hypothesis that supply creates its own demand. we can apply classical theory to endorse our theory that an addition to the supply of labour because of increase in population will exploit the latent natural resources of the country to meet their demands. An addition to labour force will not only exploit natural resources for their survival but also help infilling the lag of supply of them to give impulse to the economic growth.Therefore, increase in population will not exploit resources and find new mode and means for the country but will also make this country self reliant for food grains and many other things including labour force for which this country is totally dependent on other nations. In essence, development of the Bhutanese economy necessitates high growth of population. CONCLUSIONThe authors optimistically weaves fabric of hope that if the measures outlined above are emphatically implemented, the population itself will be brought to the optimum size and reorient to match its requirement in exploiting and utilizing the latent natural resources of the country for well-favoured impetus to the economic development of the country.Structural changes of the economy via disseminating the spectrum of industrial base are not possible in wanting of human capital that linearly links with size of population of the country. The countrys overdependence for outsourcing all kind of works will dampen if the planners review its population policy to increase it to that level necessary for exploiting the latent resources required for economic development. referBirdshall, N., & Kelley, H.T. (2001). 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